Monday, January 25, 2010

Kovy And All The Other UFAs

So I'm going to say hesitantly that our Kaptain might be out of Atlanta before seasons end. A trade seems to be every one's favorite thing to talk about lately. But is signing Kovy to the league maximum really worth all the hype its getting?

I beg to differ. The Thrashers are about to find themselves in a situation that no GM ever wants to be in, and I'm not talking about the Kovalchuk contract. I'm talking about the other 8 UFAs that can walk come July this year. Yea, 8 other players on this roster are free to test the waters of the NHL and see what their services will garnish them if they don another uniform.

So here is the question that I propose: Exactly what transactions helps this team the most in regards to Kovalchuk and the other UFAs?

We can reasonably expect that Kovy will get a 10+ year deal with a cap hit of $9 Million anywhere he goes, so that is our bench mark. That would put the team at $32 Million committed with only 9 players signed (5 of those being defenders). The hard part is most of the guys that are signed are second and third line players leaving $20 million to spread around the top six, which anyone can tell you just isn't enough money.

Now to complicate things worse, Brian Little is a RFA this year and Zach Bogosian is a RFA next year. Those two alone will probably eat up 6$ million easy (lets say $3 million each for rounding), so now the team is at $35 million before free agency to start next year.

So this is the list of UFAs the Thrashers have in the organization:
  • Ilya Kovalchuk
  • Slava Kozlov
  • Colby Armstrong
  • Jim Slater
  • Maxim Afinagenov
  • Eric Boulton
  • Pavel Kubina
  • Mark Popovic
  • Johan Hedberg
Out of this list there are several players I would like to see resigned, but several others could bring great package deals if in trades. I'd like to sign Pavel Kubina, Mark Popovic and Colby Armstrong for another few years. Hopefully, all those could get signed and done for under $10 million (Our running total would be at $45 if Kovy signs to the lowest deal above and $47 if he requires league max). I think Kozlov and Hedberg are in the fading years of their careers and both should be asked to take positions in the front office in order to create some true player presence in the board.

This optimal scenario leaves the thrashers with $9 million to fill out the remaining 5 roster spots, one of which is a top 6 forward. I guess its time to tap the farm, right? Maybe not.. consider trading Kovy and Colby Armstrong to unload some salary and get some immediate and future returns. Calgary is definitely interested in a deal like this that would bring back Dion Phaneuf, a guaranteed first round pick, and a plethora of other options for Don Waddell to choose. This saves about $3 Million in salary and brings back needed depth at defense. Other great suitors are the Kings and Blackhawks. Both teams are willing to give promising packages of draft picks, extremely talented young players on both the offenseive and defensive side of the puck.

So one final thought that makes this matter even more interesting: Todd White. If the Thrahsers can unload his $2.6 million hit next year then the team really has some barganing room to sign players. Yes, we are in Atlanta and we have to over pay players to come here, but that might be the exact cusion they need.

So that brings us back full circle to all the UFAs that are on this roster this year... what the heck do you do with all of them? Your guess is as good as mine. Maybe this isn't just Kovy asking for too much money, but the Thrashers not planning well enough to see all these UFAs staying in Blueland past this year,