Kovy And All The Other UFAs

So I'm going to say hesitantly that our Kaptain might be out of Atlanta before seasons end. A trade seems to be every one's favorite thing to talk about lately. But is signing Kovy to the league maximum really worth all the hype its getting?

I beg to differ. The Thrashers are about to find themselves in a situation that no GM ever wants to be in, and I'm not talking about the Kovalchuk contract. I'm talking about the other 8 UFAs that can walk come July this year. Yea, 8 other players on this roster are free to test the waters of the NHL and see what their services will garnish them if they don another uniform.

So here is the question that I propose: Exactly what transactions helps this team the most in regards to Kovalchuk and the other UFAs?

We can reasonably expect that Kovy will get a 10+ year deal with a cap hit of $9 Million anywhere he goes, so that is our bench mark. That would put the team at $32 Million committed with only 9 players signed (5 of those being defenders). The hard part is most of the guys that are signed are second and third line players leaving $20 million to spread around the top six, which anyone can tell you just isn't enough money.

Now to complicate things worse, Brian Little is a RFA this year and Zach Bogosian is a RFA next year. Those two alone will probably eat up 6$ million easy (lets say $3 million each for rounding), so now the team is at $35 million before free agency to start next year.

So this is the list of UFAs the Thrashers have in the organization:

• Ilya Kovalchuk
• Slava Kozlov
• Colby Armstrong
• Jim Slater
• Maxim Afinagenov
• Eric Boulton
• Pavel Kubina
• Mark Popovic
• Johan Hedberg

Out of this list there are several players I would like to see resigned, but several others could bring great package deals if in trades. I'd like to sign Pavel Kubina, Mark Popovic and Colby Armstrong for another few years. Hopefully, all those could get signed and done for under $10 million (Our running total would be at $45 if Kovy signs to the lowest deal above and $47 if he requires league max). I think Kozlov and Hedberg are in the fading years of their careers and both should be asked to take positions in the front office in order to create some true player presence in the board.

This optimal scenario leaves the thrashers with $9 million to fill out the remaining 5 roster spots, one of which is a top 6 forward. I guess its time to tap the farm, right? Maybe not.. consider trading Kovy and Colby Armstrong to unload some salary and get some immediate and future returns. Calgary is definitely interested in a deal like this that would bring back Dion Phaneuf, a guaranteed first round pick, and a plethora of other options for Don Waddell to choose. This saves about $3 Million in salary and brings back needed depth at defense. Other great suitors are the Kings and Blackhawks. Both teams are willing to give promising packages of draft picks, extremely talented young players on both the offenseive and defensive side of the puck.

So one final thought that makes this matter even more interesting: Todd White. If the Thrahsers can unload his $2.6 million hit next year then the team really has some barganing room to sign players. Yes, we are in Atlanta and we have to over pay players to come here, but that might be the exact cusion they need.

So that brings us back full circle to all the UFAs that are on this roster this year... what the heck do you do with all of them? Your guess is as good as mine. Maybe this isn't just Kovy asking for too much money, but the Thrashers not planning well enough to see all these UFAs staying in Blueland past this year,

The Adventure of TGD and The Russian

Ladies and gentleman, we have the next oscar winning movie right here. If not, its atleast a good read to make you laugh at the dipiction of Thrashers' players in Hollywood.

Ah, the helarity.

Quarter Way Mark

Ok, lets be honest now... The ending of last season wasn't a fluke and this team is amazingly fast and talented.

The scary part- We still have a line that led the team in scoring last year that has 8 goals combined on it. Imagine what is going to happen when those goals start coming... yea, its scary, I know.

Lets look at what the Thrashers have accomplished in the first quarter of the season:

• An impressive 10-6-1 record that has them slotted in 9th in the easy with several games in hand. Thats a points percentage of .617. Which means if we keep this pace up the entire season, the boys in blue finish with an stounding 101 points.
• The PK is finally shutting down opposing Power Plays. Never once in my life did I ever think this organization could boast a PK unit in the top 10 in the league... never! We have and its actually sitting at number four right now
• Goals against is down under 3. That helps when you are scoring at an average of 3.65 goals per game.
• Amist all the goalie confusion and whether Kari Lehtonen is actually healthy, the duo of Pavalec and Hedberg has come on strong and given this team a huge boost.

Some other things that made this possible are the minds upstairs. Not sure whose idea it was to find Mr. Rick Dudley and hire him as the man that fills the holes in the organization, but who ever did deserves a serious pat on the back for that one. Some very shrewd decisions to bring in serious competition at all positions during training camp worked wonders and made all these guys realize that no ones job is safe (OK, Kovy's might be, but you get the idea).

The offseason might be one of the biggest reasons this team is doing so well. The Thrashers took chances on a few players that other teams had considered either not useful, or just not good enough. Turns out they are becoming the cornerstone of a winning franchise. The Trade to bring Kubina into Atlanta makes Waddell look like a genius (wow, I just said that, haha), and Brian Burke a rookie GM. The Big A (Nik Antropov) might not be scoring goals but he has let Afinagenov and Kovy run rampant on the wings and score at will.

The one glaring hole that we seem to never be able to shake is the shots against category. Now I understand that 30+ shots a game is a lot to ask a goalie to stop, but when I started looking into things a bit more I started to realize that most those shots aren't from "prime scoring areas". What I mean is, long shots from the points or on the boards that the goalie can see easily and handle easily. I can deal with that if the shot are coming from the outside, not like last year when Kari had developed a rap sheet for how many goals he stole from opposing forwards.

Thats just some thoughts on what has gone right as a team thus far. I could go on for days and days about individuals and what they have done, but another good man has already beaten me to it. Have a read.

Could Kovalchuk's Missed Time Turn Out Better For The Thrashers?

Ok, so I know one game is not an adequite sample size to judge a trend, statistic, or any measurable entity, but last night I saw a Thrasher's team that exuded confidence like none before.

Hear me out.

The Thrashers grabbed the lead 19 seconds into the first period and never looked back. They attacked the net without fear and scored goals we Thrasher fans are so accustomed to watching being scored on us. Examples: Kane converting the steal by Peverley to get us up by two, Kovy literally walking around on the weak side of the powerplay and shelfing the puck, and Peverley banking a shot off a defender for a power play goal.

I'm not used to seeing this as a Thrasher's fan, but man I can get used to games like this. The Thrashers have a sense of confidence about them that came about only when Kovalchuck committed himself to this team when he was injured.

"They told me I couldn't hurt it anymore, so I decided to go." Kovalchuck said that sporting a walking boot after the game.

Having the Captain back made this team come alive and I honestly can't remember the last time I saw D men leading the rush infront of the forwards (Mr. Schubert seems to like playing LW). It also brought back the physical side of the Thrashers that has been absent lately. Bogosian's hit on Callahan that spurred the fight was great, and even better was the 19 yr olds quick disposal of him in the fight.

We Thrashers fans have a lot of fun to look forward too in the near future, now only if we could get the Kahlua line up and going again, then we will be a force.

Hudson's Back

Mr. Hudson decided to take a new 3 yr deal with our local Bravos, wooooooo! This is great news, and the Braves starting rotation is starting to resemble the 5 Aces era.

The Braves will make the playoffs next year and make some noise.

Mark my words, I said it now.

Kovy Back

Kovy is back skating, but we lost Evander Kane.

Damn you injury bug! Go bite someone else.

All credit due to Chris Vivlamore at the AJC.

Legace Picked Up By Canes

Manny Legace was signed by Carolina to a one year, two-way deal for $500,000 in the big league and $105,000 when he is religated to their AHL affiliate.

This is obviously a signing to deal with the laserated thigh that Cam Ward suffered and he should get some good playing time in there before Ward is able to return (time table for the injury is just over a month according to ESPN).

Should be interesting since I figured the Thrashers had a plan to use Legace in the big club... I guess I was wrong there.

Now if only the Thrashers would get smart and sign Chelios to deal before another team does this to us and steals him from under our nose.

Fulham, Can We Get Some Consistancy Please

Ok, so anyone out there who follows Fulham knows that this team is capable of playing with the best and getting points in the process. For those who seem to think otherwise, the cottagers are actually winning their fair share since joining the European Cup.

It seems crazy that just over a year ago we were wishing that there was some way to not get relegated to the Championship, and by miracle Mr. Hodgenson delivered. We went on to finish 7th in the table last year, but seem to be stalling around 10th this year.

How do you beat Liverpool soundly 3-1, then tie Wingan 1-1 at home? Its just frustrating. This team has the calibur to edge into the top 5 since we hae won against those teams, but why do we just sleepwalk through gimme games?

I guess we need Mr. Johnson's speed up front or something... I'm at a loss right now, what do they need to do.

Pavalec vs. Lehtonen, Which Would You want

Atlanta seems to be torn on what to think these days about the man between the pipes. A pretty good arument seems to rolling along down on the AJC website on which goalie the Thrashers should keep, and then what to do with the other.

I figure we should settle this once and for all and look at how the two are performing.

Kari:

• Obviously hasn't played a game in a long time and it does appear that after resting and extensive research, the doctors have found the root of his pain They found portions of bones that were pressing on the roots of nerves. For anyone who isn't accustomed to back injuries or nerve injuries think of it this way, when you are walking imagine a four inch knife stabbing you every step you take.
• When Kari is playing he is an incredibly gifted athlete that has skill unmatched by almost any goalie in the league. He has played in 204 games and won 94 of those which means you have a 50/50 shot of winning just when he is on the ice
• His save percentage is .912 which is very acceptable by NHL standards, and he does that while facing an average of 31 shots per game (anything over 30 is considered high by NHL standards)
• He has been in the league for 5 years now and only played more than 50 games once, so he is apt to injuries. But last season he showed some resilancy to injuries until he got his back tweaked

Ondrej:

• He has stepped in and taken the reigns of this team and proving he can be a number one goalie in the NHL.
• Has played in 29 games, winning 11.
• Save percentage is .902 and his GAA is 3.18 on an average of 28 shots per game.
• Understandably his sample size is much smaller so its hard to guess what he will do.

For me, I think Ondrej Pavalec is still an unproven goalie. He has lower stats in every category in comparison to Kari, and frankly hasn't proved that he can play comfortably at this level (he always seems to be scrambling and not under control). Then again Pavalec has made some saves that make him look like a beast and a man on a mission to own this team.

Obviously, there is a lot of grey here in the picture and not one has truly pulled away. Lets not forget that when Kari had his chance to shine in the one year we made the playoffs he tanked. But then again, it took Pavalec two years of trials before he finally made an impact to stay this year after he went a combined 6-7 the the previous two.

So who is your man in Atlanta? Lehtonen or Pavalec?

Kari Out '09

Just got a text from ESPN to the cellular device:

"ATL Goalie Kari Lehtonen out 6-8 weeks after undergoing surgery for the second time in less than 4 months"

OK, so maybe this wasn't him being lazy and he really did play through something last year.

I'm sad to hear this had to happen to him.